ATH 1- 6/4-6/17

[TwinkieGM]

From the East-BoSox
From the Central-Cubs
From the midwest-Royals
and From the west-Dodgers

The first word will be put out tomorrow and we'll go from there.

[TwinkieGM]

ITSSSS THE FIRST WORD

Here we go ladies. The MLB season just hit its first of the three big landmarks, that being Memorial Day. After close to 1/3 of the season in the books, whose winning that World Series, Jason Whitlock (Royals)?

[royalsgm]

First of all, I'd like to say thanks for having me on this. Now that the goodie good good stuff is over with, I'll begin. Making predictions is a fun process, however, very hard to do. It's hard enough as is making predictions when you are right before the event that you are predicting, let alone 4 months in advance. Major injuries can happen, luck can go bad, players can slump, top prospects can be called up, etc. Just look at last year when everybody in the world predicted against the Cardinals (except hmmm me and other Cardinals fans ;D).

Ok, so now I will get to making my prediction:

People can scoff at me and everything, but the team I believe will win the world series this year is another National League team. Once again they will hail from the National League Central division, the division regarded as probably the worst division in baseball right now, and no it's not the St. Louis Cardinals even though I still wouldn't count them out since they have the experience that no other team in the national league has. It's the Milwaukee Brewers. When I look at world series teams, the first thing I think of is "not the best team", but after that, I think of teams that can do it all. The Milwaukee Brewers IMO are the best team in the national league that can do it all.

Need pitching? How will Ben Sheets (6-3 3.51 ERA), Jeff Suppan (7-5 3.71 ERA; kiss my *** Jayson Stark, he's not overrated), Chris Capuano (5-4 3.80 ERA), Claudio Vargas (3-1 3.90 ERA), and eventually IMO the best pitching prospect in the minors Yovani Gallardo (8-1 2.14 ERA in AAA 95 K's in 67.1 IP) do for you?

Need bullpen pitching? How about Francisco Cordero (21 saves 0.39 ERA), Carlos Villanueva (23 games 2.97 ERA), and Matt Wise (24 games 3.22 ERA) do?

Need Power? How about Prince Fielder (19 Hrs 47 RBIs) do? Eventually I expect Weeks and hall to join him. I don't expect Hardy to keep up his pace, but i guess you never know, he's got 16 HRs right now.

Need contact? How about Prince's .290 average or Hardy's .297 average?

Need speed? Hall and Weeks are both pretty fast players. Prince Fielder is fast too ::)jk.

Need Youth? Most of their offense is young, plus Braun already up and Gallardo coming up

Need Experience? How about Geoff Jenkins, Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Francisco Cordero, and Jeff Suppan? Not many players more experienced then Jeff Suppan in the playoffs from his years with the Cards.

The sexy teams to take right now are the Red Sox and Angels from the American League, and the Mets and Dodgers from the National League. But remember, when October hits, it's not about the best team from the regular season, it's about the best team at the time, the hottest team at the time. Many times, it's the team getting talked about the least that win, than the teams being talked about the most.

[Dodgers GM]

Sorry Jason, there is no way the Brewers will ever win the World Series. It’s nice that your giving all these nice statistics about certain players on the Brew Crew, but I will give you an even better one against them. Since May 12, Milwaukee has lost 13 of its last 18. But during this Brew Crew belly-flop, Milwaukee has lost just a half game on its division lead. That's the luxury you have when playing in baseball's worst division. With the way things are going, the Astros and Reds will be lucky if they can get out of the cellar, the Cardinals and Cubs can compete for the biggest letdown in the NL and the Pirates will have another losing season. The Brewers will be lucky if they can reach 85 wins this season, and even with that it should be enough to take the division. An even better statistic against them is the fact that they just won their first series in a month, taking three of four from the Marlins. Their next step should be to beat a winning team once in a while, and actually prove their dominance in the NL before we can even talk about them winning the World Series.

So with that said, any baseball person with half a mind would pick the Red Sox to win it all this year. At 37-19 going into Tuesday play, the Red Sox have the best record in baseball, they lead the American League East by 10 games, and their .661 winning percentage puts them on pace to win a franchise-record 114 games this season.

In other words, Boston is headed back to the postseason, and they're doing it in controlling fashion. Analyzing and finding any single reason for the Red Sox's success is impossible — they've got a great offense, a good pitching staff, and a manager who actually knows what he’s doing and has control of the clubhouse. Let’s not forget the fact that they also have an owner who is willing to shell out the money and a GM who is not afraid to make deals at the trade deadline.

It can be said that the Red Sox are probably the most formidable offensive team in the game at this point in the season. On offense, that means taking balls and, when the pitch is in the zone, putting a good swing on it. On the mound, it means not walking anyone, making batters miss and working within the zone while staying out of a hitter's wheelhouse.

To get an idea of how well the Sox are doing that this season, let's take a look at Boston's 2007 AL ranking in some pertinent numbers (according to foxsports.com):

Hitter OBP: 1st
Hitter Walks: 1st
Hitter Strikeouts (fewest): 5th
Hitter K/BB Ratio: 1st
Hitter Pitches/PA: 3rd
Pitcher's Opposing OBP: 2nd
Pitcher Walks (fewest): 4th
Pitcher Strikeouts: 4th
Pitcher K/BB Ratio: 1st
Pitchers Per Batter Faced: 6th

Thus far in 2007, they pace the AL in fewest runs allowed and rank second in runs scored just behind the Tigers. If you want to isolate a couple of players who best embody this approach, then look no further than two of their biggest stars: David Ortiz and Josh Beckett. Ortiz right now has a typical Big Papi batting line of .333 AVG/.445 OBP/.605 SLG, and he's also got 35 unintentional walks and only 33 strikeouts in 195 plate appearances. He's waiting for his pitch and crushing it when he sees it. If that pitch never comes, then Ortiz takes his free base.

As for Beckett, perhaps thanks to some mechanical adjustments he's enjoying a career year. At this writing, he boasts a 2.95 ERA in 64 innings and is whiffing almost a batter per frame. (It's also worth noting that two of Beckett's rotation stable-mates, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka, rank seventh and 17th, respectively, in the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio.)

For further proof of Red Sox dominance we can look how they rank compared to the rest of the American League Competition. So let’s look first to the hitting. They have the third best batting average in the league at .280, third in runs scored with 305, first in OBP at .362, and second in OPS at .811….What all this means is that the Red Sox rank in the top 5 in almost all American League meaningful batting statistics.

What we must also understand is the true dominance of their pitching as well. Everyone will talk to you about Beckett, but the Red Sox have a plethora of good pitchers from the heralded Matsuzaka to little known Japanese pitcher Hideki Okajima. So now lets look at how their pitching ranks with the rest of the league. They are third in the league in ERA with 3.88, fourth in batting average against with .251, second in saves with 19 due to Papelbon’s great start, and fourth in WHIP with 1.32…

Watch out for the Red Sox in October, because they will be there in the end.

[TwinkieGM]

+4 for Whitlock
+4 for Bill Plaschke, woulda been a 5 if you waited your turn.

Lets hear, Bob Ryan

[bosoxgm]

Tony, nice suit. Anyways, for once, Plaschke, your right. Boston is taking it all the way this year. Now, your a big stats guy, and stats are good. But, it's really a lot simpler than that. The Sox will win behind chemistry and pitching.

Before I get into all my reasons why Boston will win, I want to respond to Whitlock's decision to pick Milwaukee. While I personally don't think they will win it all or even represent the NL in the Fall Classic, they have a good team. You want to talk pitching? Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano anchor a solid rotation. You want to talk lineup? Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy are 3 of the best young stars in the game. However, they are young none the less. I think Milwaukee is a team that many here in America want to win it all. They were a charmed team to start the year, a team with a storied history, and a team that many thought could do it. However, their sliding now. While many people are quick to count them out, I for one, am not. They play in the NL CENTRAL. IT SUCKS. I know, the Cards, Cubbies, and Astros will surge, and yeah, they have the defending WS Champs. But, Milwaukee has all the tools to win this division. However, when they make the playoffs, they'll be greeted by the New York Mets, and the Mets just won't lose to them.

Now, in terms of the team that I actually think will win it all, you got to love Boston's chemistry. Boston, a team who many thought lost their catalyst in Johnny Damon, hair and all, they still have that charisma. Manny is still being Manny. Ortiz is still that fun-loving guy. Varitek is still the leader. Papelbon is an animal. The personalities on this team make everything flow. They know how to keep things loose, keep things interesting, and keep things fun, doing all of this as they just keep winning baseball games.

At 37-20, Boston has the best record in the majors. Boston is 8th in ERA and 6th in strikeouts. They are tied for 4th in saves. What does this all tell you? Boston is winning games through pitching. With 2 aces at the front of their deck in Matsuzaka and Beckett, Boston is winning games left and right. With a potential Cy Young and potential Rookie of the Year, Boston is rolling. Looking at the bullpen, Boston has Okajima, Papelbon, Donnelly, and Romero. You know those guys, but how about Kyle Snyder? Snyder is coming into games and eating up innings and not letting in runs. In 18 games and 20 IP, Snyder has a 2.25 ERA. He is doing what is expected of him and is really helping the starters and key bullpen guys stay rested.

Finally, Manny and Ortiz. They're clowns yes, but they're also great ballplayers. These two are the best 1-2 punch in the game. With support guys in Tek, Youk, Lowell, and Drew, Boston's lineup also ranks top in the league. This team looks primed for a postseason run. The pieces are there, whether it is the strong lineup you need now, or the dominant pitching you need to guide you through October. I'm not just saying Boston will win it all, I'M GUARANTEING IT. As a fallen Boston player once said, "Here come the idiots."

[TwinkieGM]

A bold guarantee, Broadway Bob Ryan. Maybe a little hometown love? At least its legit, +4

Alright Mariotti, take it home

[cubsgm]

Bob and Bill you guys are missing the big picture. WHen was the last time the best in the league made it to the world series? I believe we have to go bck to the Yankee dynasty. Also with the Red Sox you have to worry about Schilling adn crew. Schilling is gettung up there in age. Beckett is known for his finger problems which is always there with him. We dont know is Daisuke is legit because he has yet to consistantly put up good numbers game after game. There is also a lot of injury concerns. J.D. Drew has had several injuries and is trying to play threw some right now. Vtek is gettin old fast. Also one of their best offensive options is Mike Lowell and he is known for his 2nd half slump. He fads faster down the stretch than Steer Sense at the Belmont. Don't forget Wake and Taverez are inconsistant. Coco has been a joke in Boston.

As for Milwaukee they do have a good shot. They have the talent in house and people to move to get something they could use down the stretch. One problem they have is Rickie Weeks has a bad wrist that has hampoered which could linger the rest of the season. JJ Hardy has had some trouble fielding and so has Prince. they do have nice pieces but some problems. So they could make some noise in the playoffs. I think the Mets are good but if they matched up with the Brewers I would take Suppan-Sheets-Capuano over Pedro-Hernadez-Galvine. Also there slide is in May/June not September but i believe Detroit fade a lot worst down the stretch and still amde it to the world series. The only thing that worries me about that was that it came against some of the NL's better teams but nothing to big their division is terrible.

As for my pick, I will go with the Cleveland Indians. The AL Central has been represented in the past two world series. Also both of those teams were picked to finish 4th in their division that year by Street & Smith. Who did they pick to finish 4th? YEs the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are a very balanced team. They every normal starter hitting .270 or better. They have power with Victor Martinez, Mr. Pronk, and Jhonny Peralta. They have an MVP canidate in Grady Sizemore. Also Ryan Garko has fone well at 1B. As far as the starters C.C. is 9-1 with a 3.40 era. Also Paul Byrd(3.57era 6-1) and Fausto Carmona(3.29era 6-1) have pitched well. Cliff Lee and Jeremy SOwers ahve the potential do a lot beter. When those to starters get back tot heir old selfs that rotation will be dynamite. Also don't forget this name Adam Miller. He is a stud prospect doing very well in AAA and could be up soonif Sowers and Lee dont pick it up. As far as the bullpen is 17-19 in save ops. Betancourt has been lights out with a 1.54 era adnd Fultz has a 1.69era. Don't sleep on the Indians.They are for real just ask their divisional mates. Don't forget they still have a very good farm system to go get some help for the bullpen or whereever the need it.

[TwinkieGM]

Dunno why you think the Mets would leave Perez or Maine out of the playoff rotation, but you make some good points with the indians, even though I coulldn't follow some of your stuff.

+3

Lets keep it goin fellas, heres an out of baseball topic. Hey Plaschke, Spurs or Cavs?

[Dodgers GM]

Within the next couple of weeks the world will be witnessing the pinnacle of the basketball season when two of the best, and most different, teams collide to battle it out to be called champions. While some may think that we will be observing the christening of a new legend in LeBron, the smart and savvy will know that the logical and the winner of the upcoming Finals will be the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs might have had a rough start to the season, but they were the NBA's best team after the All-Star break. They then took care of the Nuggets, beat the Suns at their own game, and dismantled the Jazz to reach the championship round. They are on a mission, and they are not going to let an inexperienced Cavs team--even one led by LeBron--stop them from reaching another title.

There are 6 reasons why the Spurs will beat the Cavaliers in the Finals:

1. Spurs have been there, done that
Experience sometimes can be overrated. NBA history is plagued with young teams that vanquished proven former champions. Just three years ago the Pistons didn't have nearly as much experience as the Lakers, yet they sent the Shaq/Kobe/Karl Malone/Gary Payton squad home in five games.

We have to remember though that in this case, however, San Antonio is not some old worn-out team tending to injuries or broken by fighting within the ranks. The Spurs are healthy. They are well-focused and perhaps have the most cohesive bunch of players on any team in the league. A clear example of this is Ginobili, in how he has selfishly gone off the bench throughout the season to better help the team.

According to Sports Illustrated, “San Antonio's roster features seven players who have won championship rings. Duncan, Bowen, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili each have at least two. Robert Horry has six. The Cavs have only ony player with Finals experience: backup point guard Eric Snow.”

2. Spurs have their own superstar…and work better as a team

Given all the propaganda for LeBron and how he has carried his team thus far, it's simple to overlook the Spurs and their own leader on the court, Tim Duncan. Duncan is only a three-time Finals MVP and no other player in today’s game compares to him in how versatile of a player he is. He might not be as explosive as James, but he influences the game in so many ways. The best way to think of him is as a Jason Kidd of the interior post. He can hurt the opponent in so many ways, even when not scoring. He is a tremendous blocker; he makes terrific passes to the key scorers on the team like Parker and Ginobili, and gets the tough rebounds.

This season he had 20 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 3.4 APG….and so far in the postseason he has elevated his game to match the level of intensity and composure he brings. So far this postseason he is averaging 23.4 PPG, 11.4 RPG, and 3.1 APG. This guy is a big game player and knows what needs to be done in order to win.

But the Spurs are more than their big man; they are probably the best example of a unified team in what is a player first league. They consistently prove that a true team effort leads to winning and it’s been proven by all the success the team has had. The Cavaliers are a young team with little lack of proven stability beyond LeBron. We also must remember that James hasn’t been tested in these pressure filled conditions that are the NBA Finals and has little support around him.

3. Spurs can play any style of play
Remember how the critics said that the Spurs would lose to the Suns and Jazz because they played a much higher tempo game and the Spurs couldn’t catch up? Well all those who said so were proven dead wrong. The Spurs are the basketball equivalent of a chameleon in that they can match and play any tempo of game that their rivals throw at them. They have proven that they can match the speedy all out tempo of the Suns and the midcourt and big banging of the Jazz. The Cavaliers have yet to prove that they can match the level of the Spurs versatility in how they play. Yes, most people will idiotically point to the fact that the Cavs did beat the defensive minded Pistons. But lest we forget that the Cavs are really a more defensive team than anything, and were given little credit for their defensive game. They didn’t suddenly start playing defense against the Pistons, and to boot the Pistons have the same problem as the Cavs in that they are offensively challenged….which the Spurs will end up exploiting (see below).

4. Spurs will limit LeBron’s effectiveness
The Spurs realize that LeBron James can explode at any time in the game and produce a high number of points for the Cavs, but the Spurs aren’t concerned as long as they hold his teammates from helping him. San Antonio's attitude has always been keep playing their own game and not change it based on one player. So by doing this they realize that containing LeBron is a wasted effort but isolating him from his teammates or trying to frustrate him by double teaming him is the only way to lessen his effect.

This was already proven in Game 1 of the series. They were able to frustrate LeBron by giving him different looks by double teaming him and made sure that his effect on the game was kept at a minimum with 14 points.

By keeping LeBron double teamed throughout the game it forces for him to pass more and not drive in all the time. So ultimately he will have to count on his teammates of lesser capacity to produce game in and game out. It doesn’t take a basketball wiz to figure out that Daniel Gibson or Larry Hughes can’t score 30 points every night.

5. Popovich
Unlike Mike Brown, Popovich is one of the NBA's most experienced and successful coaches. He has guided the Spurs to the stratosphere of success, and has three championships in three tries to show for it. Popovich knows how to inspire his guys, and won't be afraid to turn to seldom-used players if he needs them like he did with Kerr in the past. The experience of Popovich is priceless coming into the Finals, as he seems to always know what buttons to push and press to get his team going.

Brown is going to find it a rough going facing such an all around team like the Spurs. Although he has the superstar of the league in LeBron, he has little else to work with and it will take a miracle for him to pull out more than 2 games in this series.

6. Bench
The San Antonio bench is one of the best in the league, with the depth and experience it carries, along with the talent. Ginobili off the bench is a legit All-Star incognito as a bench guy. He is the spark that makes the team go and can explode and go on hot streaks as shown in his game 4 performance in the Utah series. Robert Horry, another big component off the bench, brings experience with his six championship rings and tends to make the big shots when it counts. Brent Barry provides the team with a scrappy guy who will play hard whenever he is in and provides a solid backup whenever needed.

The Cavs bench is mostly filled with aging vets on their last breaths. They have counted on them throughout these playoffs, but I doubt that they can give much more against a much better team than they have faced thus far. Eric Snow and Damon Jones are nice players, but they are in the wrong side of their 30’s and could break down at any time. This series is simply going to come down to LeBron versus the world…

THE PICK:
This one is easy Tony…San Antonio in 6

[TwinkieGM]

+5 Mr. Plaschke, someone knows there hoops...do you Mariotti?

[cubsgm]

Yes I know my basketball. I am in Chicago and we had a great player I think his name was Michael Jordan. He was part of one of the great dynasiest of the modern era. He help lead ths Bulls to domination. Everyone wants to put LeBron in MJ ring when I in reality there are only a couple people that can come close. Larry Bird is one that comes to mind. Magic is another. One thing these guys have in common is a bunch of rings and great teams. In order for LeBron to get that ring he needs his supporting cast to step up. If the Cavs are to have any shot of winning a game Larry Hughes and Big Z have to knock down their shots when they are open. Also Daniel Gibson has been on fire in the playoffs and is helping LeBron by knocking open shots. With Larry Hughes still hampered with his foot, Daniel starting would make more since he would have a better shot of slowqing down Tony Parker. if the Cavs can'f find away to slow Tony down then him nd Eva will have plenty of time to prepare for their wedding. LeBron can't single handly take down the Spurs. The Spurs and Tim Duncan are quickly becoming in the discussion with MJ, Magic, and Bird. Those teams have great benches, starters, and can play some defense. LeBron will not and can not drive around Bowen and dunk it whenever he wants liek he did against Prince and the Pistons. That is the main diffence between these to teams is the fact that the Spurs can step over and confuse/slwo down LeBron. With that being said the Spurs have a deep bench lead my Manu and Big Shot Rob and a hos tof others. Robert Horry is trying to win his 7th NBA ring which is very impressive. He has been a big time clutch preformer and leader. As if the Spurs need a leader. The Spurs have been able to contain Iverson, Nash, and Boozer. The can get out and run and win and they can also play half court grind it out game. With that being said the SPurs will hoist the Trophy in 6 games. If LeBron's cast of Hughes, Big Z, and others runs and hides like game 1 then the Spurs will hoist it up in 4 or 5 games. To much defense and to much Timmy Duncan, who is the BEST player in the NBA, for the Cavs to contain. Tell me another more complete player in the NBA who goes about his business quitely and confidently. Also the Spurs have one of the best coaches of all time in Greg Popovich. This series is a total mis match and I would have rahter seen Spurs and Suns rematch this time AMare and Diaw for th ewhole seires.

[TwinkieGM]

+3, again a little hard to follow in the middle there

Bob RYan?

[bosoxgm]

OK Tony, I have been on the fence about this series for quite some time now. First of all, I am a Lebron James fanatic. James has all the tools. He's 6'8" and can play almost any position except for center. The man can pass, he can shoot, he can dribble, he can defend, and as we all know, he can dunk. Now, all of the critics say Lebron can't carry this team by himself. No, he can't. But, he knows he can't. He shares the ball with Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes, and Big Z. For Lebron and Cleveland to be successful, it isn't about Lebron always taking the shots and always being the go to guy. It's about Lebron making the right decisions that are most beneficial for his team.

While I love Lebron and want this man to excel, my brain is telling me to go San Antonio. Fact is, they're too deep. They're all selfless basketball players who will do anything to benefit their team. Ginobli, who is the best penetrater in the game in my opinion, comes off the bench. Your talking about the guy who led Argentina to an Olympic Gold and a guy who is an All-Star. Then, you look at the other guys. Tony Parker is an unbelivable point guard. I read an interesting thing in ESPN the other day. International players are very good passers for a reason. If you think about it, they grow up with soccer, or futbol if you will. In soccer, your always looking in front of you and trying to make the pass that will lead into something more. Guys like Tony Parker have developed into basketball players with soccer players vision. Parker is one of the best passers in the league and is a solid scorer too. He makes the Spurs go.

Finally, what can be said about Big Fundamental? The big fella can take games over. He is all mechanics, all fundamental, all cut and dry post moves. But, he makes it work. He won't overpower you, he'll just finesse you into the ground. Duncan can take over a basketball game and when he is surrounded by guys that can either get him the ball or open up oppurtunities for him to score is going to make him only better. He is an animal on the boards and comes up with blocked shots left and right. Timmy D is arguably the best post player in the NBA and is a defenite reason as to why the Spurs are so successful.

The role players on San Antonio are a huge reason as to why the Spurs win games. Bruce Bowen, who along with Tayshaun Prince, is the best perimeter defender in the game. He can stifle Lebron and limit the scoring chances Lebron has. Francisco Elson and Fabrico Oberto are two bangers on the boards, as they average a combined 3.5 offensive rebounds per game. Michael Finley is another player who can do it all. He can slash and shoot and is a great scorer for the Spurs. Brent Barry is a 3-point threat, and Big Shot Bob always has the potential to knock down a three, and even worse, knock down a 3 to win.

Greg Popovich is the cherry on top. Pop has been running the show and has brought 3 championships to San Antonio. With one more, the word dynasty is an understatement. Pop has brought the Spurs to the playoffs, Western Conference finals, and NBA finals many times in the past 10 years. This team is poised to win it all.

The Spurs are too dominant. While Cleveland I think has a better chance then many think, the Spurs are just too deep and too good. This one will go seven, though. Lebron and company will make it interesting, but the deep and overpowering Spurs will make it happen. 4 out of 10 sounds good for the team from Texas, eh Tony?

[TwinkieGM]

That it does Mr. Ryan, +4. Is anybody gonna take Bron and the Cavs? Are you Jason Whitlock?